The new study examines one of
the conclusions of an international conference on the humanitarian impacts of
nuclear weapon detonations held in Oslo, Norway, in March 2013 that it is "unlikely that any state or international body could address the immediate
humanitarian emergency caused by a nuclear weapon detonation in an adequate
manner and provide sufficient assistance to those affected. Moreover, it might
not be possible to establish such capacities, even if it were attempted.”
UNIDIR’s study was carried out in cooperation with UNDP and
OCHA and includes a foreword by Helen Clark and Valerie Amos, the heads of those two UN agencies respectively. The study describes the
current humanitarian system, and considers challenges for its activation and
operation in the face of a range of plausible, illustrative nuclear weapon
detonation scenarios.
As a scoping exercise the
study identifies specific issues that warrant further policy and operational
attention in order to enhance civilian protection from nuclear weapons. It
suggests steps the humanitarian system could take to better plan for such
eventualities, and it reinforces the importance of preventing nuclear weapons from
ever being used again in populated areas—whether deliberately or accidentally.
Even if the probability of a
nuclear weapon detonation event is viewed as low compared with other
sudden-onset disasters, it remains a real one. There are as many as 17,000 nuclear weapons in the arsenals of nine states, and growing evidence of accidents, mishaps, and near misses since their invention. The prospect of use of single or
multiple nuclear weapons by a state, whether deliberately or inadvertently, cannot
be excluded. A single nuclear detonation in an urban area by a non-state armed
group is another possibility.
Nuclear weapon detonations could occur in populated or remote areas, with differing implications in
terms of harm to human life, infrastructure, and the environment. The
consequences of even one nuclear weapon detonated in or near a population centre
would be sufficiently disastrous that the United Nations-coordinated
humanitarian system could be called upon to assist the victims.
UNIDIR’s study indicates that
this would pose a number of serious practical and policy challenges for the
humanitarian system. Problems range from the particular characteristics of
nuclear detonations such as prompt radiation and radioactive fallout to large
numbers of injured people with multiple trauma, serious burn injuries, and
radiation-related illness, to widespread fear and disruption, and a low current
level of awareness and planning for response. There are inadequate specific
procedures and systems appropriate to nuclear weapon detonations compared to
preparedness for civil nuclear accidents - from which such detonations differ
in significant ways. Protection of humanitarian personnel is highlighted as a
particular issue of concern.
In drawing attention attention to the immense challenges of preparedness and response to nuclear weapon detonations in populated areas, the study reinforces previous findings, such as those of the WHO in the 1980s, that the only really effective response to the public health effects of the use of nuclear weapons lies in preventing that use.
In drawing attention attention to the immense challenges of preparedness and response to nuclear weapon detonations in populated areas, the study reinforces previous findings, such as those of the WHO in the 1980s, that the only really effective response to the public health effects of the use of nuclear weapons lies in preventing that use.
Fuller details of the main findings of UNIDIR’s study will be listed in a
separate posting on this site.
An earlier UNIDIR publication, “Viewing Nuclear Weapons through a Humanitarian Lens” can also
be found on the Institute’s website.
John Borrie and Tim Caughley
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