These insights are offered as an abbreviated backgrounder to the current thematic debate in the Conference on Disarmament (CD) on a core issue on the CD’s agenda, a ban on the production of fissile material (FM), a central ingredient in nuclear weapons. Participants in that debate on 31 May will have heard the CD’s president, Ambassador Kahiluotu draw on some, but not all, of the following points.
There have been many working
papers on FM submitted to the CD (or its precursors) culminating in CD/1910
tabled a year ago by eight members (Bulgaria, Germany, Mexico, Netherlands,
Romania, Spain, Sweden and Turkey). The first occasion on which a firm focus
was provided for fissile material was in June 1964 when the US submitted a
working paper to the then Eighteen Nation body (ENCD) about "the inspection of nuclear powers under a
cut-off of fissionable material for use in weapons."
Then in 1978, following a
Canadian proposal to ban FM for use in weapons, the UN’s first Special Session
on Disarmament (SSODI), in a consensus resolution (S-10/2), proclaimed that the
achievement of nuclear disarmament would require “urgent negotiation of agreements … with adequate measures of
verification … for: … (b) Cessation of the … production of fissionable material
for weapons purposes”.
The Cold War and the CD’s
pre-occupation with negotiating the Chemical Weapons Convention and the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty dominated the scene until 24 March 1995 when Canadian
Ambassador Shannon (the CD’s Special Coordinator on FM) produced a report known
as the Shannon Mandate calling for an Ad Hoc Committee (AHC) within the CD to
negotiate a FM treaty that would be “non-discriminatory,
multilateral and internationally and effectively verifiable”. This term was drawn from a UNGA
Resolution adopted by consensus in 1993 following a proposal by US President
Bill Clinton for negotiations on a treaty to ban the production of FM. It was
intended to ensure that the outcome applied the same verification rules to all
parties in contrast, for example, to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
(NPT).
The Shannon Mandate did not
explicitly describe the scope of the negotiations but Shannon made it
clear that the establishment of an AHC did not preclude any delegation from
raising for consideration in the subsidiary body any of the issues noted in his
report including the highly contentious one of whether pre-existing stocks of
FM would be covered by the eventual treaty.
Uptake of the Shannon
Mandate was not immediate, and discussions on forming a subsidiary body to
negotiate a FM Treaty (or Fissban) stalled. Non-aligned members of the CD (NAM) insisted that progress
towards the negotiation of such an agreement should be linked to progress
towards the elimination of nuclear weapons, another core issue on the CD’s
agenda. The NAM called for a specific timetable for nuclear disarmament. The
five NPT-recognised nuclear weapons states disagreed with this linkage but
several subsequently made linkages of their own including to the negotiation of
another core issue, the Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space.
In 1998, in the wake of
India’s and Pakistan’s nuclear tests, a breakthrough was achieved when the CD
formally established an AHC to negotiate a treaty in accordance with the
Shannon Mandate. But the Committee
met for only 3 weeks. Despite many
attempts to renew it, that mandate (CD/1299), remains unimplemented.
It has been blocked for
various periods since 1998 by difficulties confronting just two delegations at
separate times and has continued to be stymied also by linkages drawn with
other core issues on the CD’s agenda including nuclear disarmament.
To sum up, the history of FM
in the CD is inextricably linked in one way or another to progress on nuclear
disarmament. The challenge facing
the CD is not to determine whether one issue is riper than another but to deal
with both issues in tandem or, more manageably, in sequence. To many states the obvious way forward –
albeit highly controversial - is the inclusion of pre-existing FM stocks in the
negotiation mandate, as Shannon sought to do, investing the process with joint
non-proliferation and nuclear
disarmament objectives.
This is not the same thing
as inclusion of stocks in the eventual treaty. Compromise may lie, for example,
in an outcome under which it would be agreed that existing stocks would not
directly be dealt with in the treaty except as part of a broader framework.
Such stocks could be covered by a separate protocol (as proposed by Algeria in
1998 (CD/1545), or be subject to a phased, multi-faceted approach entailing
binding unilateral or plurilateral declarations or other binding commitments by
the nuclear weapons-possessing states – see, for instance Brazil’s proposal in
2010 (CD/1888).
Shedding light on these or other variations and possibilities through
the current formal discussions may, it is to be hoped, facilitate consensus on
a FM mandate, and help the CD resolve its longstanding impasse over determining
its negotiating priorities (also known as settling its Programme of Work).
This
is a guest post by Tim Caughley. Tim is a Resident Senior Fellow at UNIDIR –
for other comments on fissile material see also here.
The
symbol is drawn from Microsoft Clip Art.
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