These
insights - provided by Theresa Hitchens, Director, UNIDIR - were offered as an
abbreviated backgrounder to the current thematic debate in the Conference on
Disarmament (CD) on a core issue on the CD’s agenda, the Prevention of an Arms
Race in Outer Space. Participants in that debate on 5 June will have heard the
CD’s president, Ambassador Kahiluotu draw on many of the
following points.
The Conference on Disarmament – then the
Committee on Disarmament – began formal deliberations of the Prevention of an
Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS) in 1985, with the establishment of an Ad Hoc
Committee on PAROS. This followed from several earlier initiatives within the
United Nations General Assembly – initiated by the then-Soviet Union in 1981.
The UNGA adopted two resolutions regarding
arms control and outer space in 1981: A/RES/36/97, sponsored by the Western
Europe and Others Group (WEOG) which asked the CD to negotiate a treaty to ban
anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons; and A/RES/36/99, sponsored by the Eastern
European states, which urged the Committee to negotiate a treaty banning the
placement of weapons in outer space. In 1982, General Assembly resolution
A/RES/37/83 called on the then-titled Committee on Disarmament to prioritize
the issue of “the prevention of an arms race in outer space” and to establish
an ad hoc committee during its 1983 session.
Thus the term PAROS was born as reflecting
a compromise between the two earlier, more specific resolutions – which in turn
represent long-standing differences that exist to some extent to this day about
how to prioritize threats to space security.
The Ad Hoc Committee was tasked “to examine
as a first step at this stage, through substantive and general consideration,
issues relevant to the prevention of an arms race in outer space.” The
programme of work was established as follows:
1. Examination and consideration of issues
relevant to PAROS
2. Examination and consideration of
existing agreements relevant to PAROS, and
3. Examination and consideration of
existing proposals and future initiatives on PAROS.
Unfortunately, the fundamentally different
perceptions of security threats, priorities and methods to address them
ultimately doomed the Ad Hoc Committee’s efforts. The Committee met annually
from 1985 to 1994, each year failing to result in any agreed pathway forward.
Differences among states included the question of whether or not new legally
binding measures were required, what threats (ASATs vs. weapons in space) were
actually real and present dangers, and whether the Committee’s focus should be
on substantive discussions or on developing a negotiating mandate. The Ad Hoc
Committee’s work finished at the end of its session in 1994; it was not
re-established in 1995 because some Member States wanted linkage between the
continuation of the PAROS Committee and an Ad Hoc Committee on a Fissile
Material Treaty. As such, neither Committee was re-established. Indeed, the
linkage between PAROS and a Fissile Material Treaty was for many years the
fundamental reason for the CD’s overall paralysis.
In the years following the Ad Hoc
Committee’s demise, interest in PAROS at the CD was kept alive essentially by
three Member States: Canada, the People’s Republic of China and the Russian
Federation. In January 1998,
Canada proposed a new Ad Hoc Committee to negotiate the non-weaponization of
outer space. In a February 2000 working paper, the People’s Republic of China
proposed that the PAROS Ad Hoc Committee be revived with a mandate to negotiate
a “new international legal instrument prohibiting the testing, deployment, and
use of weapons, weapon systems and components in outer space.” In 2002, China
and the Russian Federation put forward a working paper outlining possible
elements of a future treaty to prevent the deployment of weapons in outer
space; in 2008 the two states submitted a draft treaty – based on refinement of
their initial proposal in response to comments and discussions over the
intervening years – on the Prevention and Placement of Weapons in Outer Space
(PPWT). Between 2006 and 2009, Canada submitted four working papers on various
PAROS related issues, including verification of a treaty and transparency and
confidence-building measures (TCBMs).
In 2009, with the adoption of resolution
CD/1864, the long stalemate at the CD regarding its programme of work was
broken – in part due to a compromise that de-linked negotiations on PAROS and
Fissile Material; instead providing a negotiating mandate on the latter and a
discussion mandate for the latter. On PAROS the programme of work would have
created a working group to “discuss substantively, without limitation, all
issues related to the prevention of an arms race in outer space.” Sadly, the
agreement collapsed almost as soon as it was printed. PAROS, however, remains
one of the “core” agenda items for the CD and an eventual programme of work.
As the CD continues its efforts to reach
agreement on its future activities, Member States should be aware of several
other ongoing efforts regarding space security that could impact future PAROS
discussions:-
In 2010, the General Assembly established,
under A/RES/65/68, a UN Group of Governmental Experts on Transparency and
Confidence Building Measures for Outer Space Activities (GGE) to meet in 2012
and 2013. It should be remembered that a similar GGE -- on the “Study and on
the application of confidence building measures in outer space” (A/48/305) –
resulted in a study that was the subject of positive follow-up consideration by
the CD’s Ad Hoc Committee in 1994. If the current GGE is able to reach
agreement on a report in 2013, the CD potentially could again be in a position
to take such work forward – although there continues to be some disagreement
within the Conference between those Member States who see TCBMs as worth
pursuit in and of themselves and those who see value in TCBMs only if they are
linked to pursuit of a legally binding treaty.
The second on-going effort of note is the
European Union’s initiative to develop an
international code of conduct for space activities, which is essentially a
macro-level norm setting approach. On 5 June 2012, the EU presented its latest
draft text at an experts meeting in Vienna and will be launching a political
process to refine the text and broaden support. The current draft text covers
both military and non-military uses of space, and some TCBM-type elements that
again would require consideration in any future PAROS discussions or
negotiations within the CD.
Finally, the UN Committee on the Peaceful
Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) in Vienna is working to develop best-practice
guidelines for space activities in order to promote the “long-term
sustainability” of space. This is a largely technical undertaking and the
Committee has no mandate to discuss military space operations. However, many of
the foundational issues that are being discussed, such as exchange of data on
orbital objects and notification of planned maneuvers, are also foundational
aspects of any future TCBM or treaty regime. This work is set to conclude with a proposed list of
voluntary best practices in 2014.
Thus, there is a vast and growing body of
work on PAROS and related issues that the CD could draw upon in future
discussions or negotiations. This, in and of itself, is a source for optimism
that if the CD begins work on PAROS, progress toward multilateral solutions
could be forthcoming relatively rapidly.